Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.217579 13.766547 16.614972 20.012780 23.933527 28.293602 33.485876
2026-01-04 7.643956 10.898485 14.951711 20.277001 26.988606 35.063260 45.399361
2026-01-11 5.724226 9.220784 13.964358 20.666082 29.665898 41.099284 56.459079
2026-01-18 4.535762 8.134335 13.387539 21.267008 32.397316 47.146014 67.696196
2026-01-25 3.448334 6.894561 12.303092 20.892248 33.607110 51.110192 76.300334
2026-02-01 2.774054 6.129914 11.750221 21.129850 35.576846 56.102834 86.432803
2026-02-08 2.148808 5.280723 10.891507 20.734530 36.497493 59.585408 94.565357
2026-02-15 1.637414 4.498798 9.990446 20.113363 36.947762 62.329068 101.696156
2026-02-22 1.387000 4.179609 9.846000 20.705509 39.297068 67.949282 113.176815
2026-03-01 1.089845 3.664814 9.237443 20.396731 40.125754 71.267506 121.365317
2026-03-08 0.883872 3.300973 8.855712 20.431435 41.490904 75.438481 130.956337
2026-03-15 0.650786 2.775772 8.033363 19.524593 41.143660 76.849694 136.352668
2026-03-22 0.543581 2.585403 7.942881 20.092716 43.541245 82.980295 149.629051
2026-03-29 0.435688 2.346925 7.699440 20.332792 45.385176 88.336217 161.985035
2026-04-05 0.354932 2.160614 7.541209 20.720956 47.512743 94.246608 175.433785
2026-04-12 0.296524 2.027548 7.489341 21.323007 50.069618 100.980405 190.435267
2026-04-19 0.219696 1.764587 7.026380 20.947462 50.703588 104.426780 200.183795
2026-04-26 0.174715 1.614923 6.845233 21.185556 52.541575 110.027192 213.654362
2026-05-03 0.126644 1.403221 6.422467 20.789416 53.061696 113.301094 223.331539
2026-05-10 0.087139 1.192589 5.938488 20.166954 53.051031 115.595847 231.404940
2026-05-17 0.071829 1.130593 5.935915 20.760334 55.619838 122.675619 247.853384
2026-05-24 0.050567 0.987910 5.605619 20.450913 56.229425 126.158513 258.199407
2026-05-31 0.037239 0.891007 5.414479 20.485690 57.579616 131.062593 271.150732